To give a forecast of the development of a country is a thankless task. After all, its development is affected by a number of circumstances that can change literally at any moment. And no politician or economist can accurately promise these changes, all the more with a high degree of probability. But still, what are the forecasts regarding the development of Russia in the coming years?
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The economy of the Russian Federation is closely connected with the world economy; therefore, it is directly affected by all economic booms, as well as recessions and crises. For example, World Bank (WB) experts predict that the overall growth of the global economy, recovering from the 2008 crisis, over the next 2-3 years will be about 3.5%. As for Russia, the forecasts of these economists are more modest. They believe that growth will not exceed 2.7%, and this is at best. However, this is a very good indicator, since in the past 2013 the growth of the Russian economy was only 1.4% (some economists say that in reality it was less and did not exceed 1.3%).
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Specialists from the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation are less optimistic. For example, Minister Alexei Valentinovich Ulyukaev said that according to his forecasts, Russia's GDP growth will not exceed 2.5%, and most likely will be even lower. This is explained by a number of reasons, among which the most important ones are a decrease in the volume of investments in the Russian economy both from the side of Russian business and from foreign partners, and a drop in consumer demand. Recall that earlier the Ministry of Economy predicted significantly greater growth, about 3% in 2014, and in the range from 3.1 to 3.3% in the next two years.
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However, all these conclusions are to some extent arbitrary. The fact is that the rapidly developing crisis around Ukraine greatly reduces the possibility of giving any probable forecast for the economic development of Russia. If it comes to sanctions against specific sectors of the Russian economy (which the West has repeatedly scared), this will certainly play a negative role, although with a sound economic policy, the losses from sanctions can be significantly reduced. In the worst case scenario (if Russia is forced to intervene in the armed conflict between the new government in Kiev and pro-Russian militias in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions) the damage from direct costs of warfare and sanctions by the West can be very large.
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It is also difficult to make a long-term forecast of how a possible reorientation of cooperation from West to East will affect the state of the Russian economy. Especially in light of the recent large-scale natural gas supply contract with the People's Republic of China.
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