Recently, talk of raising the retirement age has been heard more and more often. This measure is becoming a reality and economically inevitable, as the number of pensioners is increasing, and the number of working citizens, on the contrary, is decreasing. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation considers raising the retirement age to be the very measure that will help to overcome the existing deficit of the Pension Fund.
The reform carried out earlier did not remove the country's pension system from adversity, and experts believe that the time is not far off when the Pension Fund simply cannot fulfill its obligations.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation presented to the agencies involved in the development of the pension reform its calculations, according to which the deficit of the Pension Fund can be eliminated by 2029 by a smooth, multi-stage increase in the age of those who go on well-deserved rest. According to these calculations, the first stage of the increase should be expected in 2015. It is planned that the final retirement age will be 63 years, and it will be the same for both men and women.
As is customary, in its calculations, the Ministry of Finance refers to examples of Western countries in which the retirement age is 65-67 years. However, it is not taken into account that the average life expectancy in developed countries is more than 70 years for men and about 80 years for women, whereas in Russia these indicators are 64.3 and 76.1 years, respectively.
A first look at these indicators suggests that the chances of surviving to retirement at 63 years for many men will be unrealistic. Taking into account the fact that the proposals of the Ministry of Finance indicate an increase in the minimum working experience guaranteeing receipt of a pension from 5 years to 15, men who have worked for 14 years will have to work up to the same 64 years, which are an indicator of average mortality, to receive a pension.
The representatives of the Ministry of Finance, however, say that this indicator is very strongly influenced by the high mortality rate characteristic of young people. According to her, according to the Minister of Finance, the average life expectancy of Russian men will increase to the average European.
It is hoped that the package of proposals of the Ministry of Finance to overcome the PFR deficit, including raising the retirement age, will not be accepted unconditionally. The Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Economic Development are also opposed, who believe that the problem is not in demographics at all, but in low insurance premium rates and the lack of funding to provide early pensions. In July 2012, it is expected that agencies involved in the development of pension reform will report to the Cabinet of Ministers preliminary results of their decisions. It is planned that the reform project will be completed by October 2012, and it will begin to be implemented in January 2014.
The government will not have the opportunity to avoid raising the retirement age, as long as the country is only a supplier of raw materials and no competitive production has been launched that can reduce the economy’s dependence on oil and gas dollar injections.
