In 2010-2011, a number of countries in the Middle East and North Africa were swept by a wave of protest revolutionary movements. These events were called the "Arab Spring", and Tunisia became its "cradle". After the overthrow of the presidential regime in Tunisia, the protest spread to Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman. In March 2011, unrest began in Syria, which has not subsided so far.
The "latent phase" of Syrian tension eventually developed into an "aggressive" one: armed clashes began between government forces and the opposition. However, the civil war in Syria poses a threat to global peace, so no one should be left behind.
Experts believe that after Syria, Lebanon will immediately “flare up”. The situation in Lebanon in recent years has been unstable. The once prosperous tourist country has become an upscale for battles between different groups, and not only between Sunnis and Shiites. Lebanon also experienced aggression from Israel. Now many leading orientalists are confident that Lebanon is destined to become the next link in the chain of instability in the Middle East.
Due to the Syrian crisis, Lebanon split into two hostile camps. One of them, led by the Hezbollah movement, supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The opposing camp, led by the March 14 Movement, supports the growing Syrian revolution. If a real war of “all against all” develops in Syria, it will definitely capture Lebanon.
On the other hand, as the chief researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Georgy Mirsky points out, the potential conflict in Lebanon cannot be put on a par with the rest of the events of the “Arab spring”. Lebanon is a multiconfessional country with a confessional management system. Representatives of all major religions participate in political decision-making. In this situation, dictatorship is impossible in Lebanon in principle, which means that there is no reason to rebel against the imaginary "usurper", as happened in Libya and Egypt.
Another danger of the civil war in Syria is the so-called "humanitarian aid" from the United States. If an armed conflict develops in Syrian cities, the Americans will "pull" their military bases there supposedly to restore and maintain a peaceful situation. The UN troops are thus moving closer to the coveted Russian borders. Instability throughout the Middle East can be of direct benefit to them, helping to build a strategic “bridge”. And from the other side, China is already supporting Russia, pulling its troops to the border that has become symbolic, in fact.
