Recently, one of the popular Forbes bloggers published a list of 7 reasons why you should not rejoice in the looming revolution in Ukraine. Taking into account the courage of the Ukrainian people, the author takes a sober look at the prospects of the economic picture.
Instruction manual
1
Once the revolution has already happened.
Once Yushchenko defeated Yanukovych with the “orange” revolution, but it all ended in failure: the economy began to decline, and the effectiveness of the new government did not impress citizens. As a result, Yanukovych returned.
2
Russia holds up $ 15 billion in financial assistance.
The Ukrainian government was counting on this money, but the Russian Federation decided to temporarily delay the transfer of funds until better times. Most likely, Russia will cancel this package of financial assistance - and then in 2-3 weeks Ukraine will have to declare either partial or sovereign default.
3
In the West they are vigorously discussing and giving no money.
To financially support the crumbling government structures of Ukraine or the still unformed government, no country has a special desire. Even Greece was practically tormented at one time, and then throwing billions into the wind?
4
Ukrainians themselves are not able to decide whether they need to go to Europe or not.
According to recent polls, the votes are divided almost in half: 37% want to join the Customs Union, and 39% - for association with the EU.
5
Russia holds a bunch of economic trump cards up its sleeve.
It is enough to recall the price of gas, which can always be reviewed, as well as the restrictions on imports from Ukraine.
6
The International Monetary Fund will tighten the belt.
If Ukraine has no other way but to bow to the IMF, then it will have to agree with its strict rules of the so-called "financial discipline." But the problem is not that it can negatively affect the Ukrainian economy, but that the people are unlikely to appreciate the sharp decline in government spending and the end of subsidizing gas and electricity tariffs.
7
The demographic crisis in Ukraine is gaining momentum.
Alas, even in a "dying Russia" demographic situation is much more encouraging than in Ukraine. And for current Ukrainian politics, population decline is one of the main factors hindering economic growth.
